Agile Task Estimation Calculator

How long will that take? Use this calculator to provide better answers to that question for your technical and programming tasks. You should not estimate a task without a good understanding of the specification, acceptance criteria, user story, and wireframes, and remember an estimate is not a commitment.

Are you new to the project or company?

In the first 6 months there will be onboarding so you won't be as productive

Yes

Are there any known unknowns or investigations required?

Such as API integrations, dependencies, new technology, research, investigating bugs

Yes

Does the task cover multiple areas of the stack?

Such as frontend, backend, database, cloud services, analysis, machine learning

Yes

Is this a task you can complete by yourself?

Answer no if you need to liaise with another person or team, or success relies on someone else finishing their task

Yes

Are you working on multiple projects?

Answer no if this is the only project you're working on

Yes

How complex and risky do you think the task will be?

Higher complexity, difficulty and risk indicates more uncertainty

Has few parts and can be done in your sleep. Nothing will break.

Easy

Has more parts and you'll need to be awake. Things shouldn't break.

Medium

Has many parts and you'll need a coffee. Things could break.

Hard

Has lots of parts and you'll need body armour. Everything will break.

Nightmare

What size would you give to the task?

Larger sizes indicates more uncertainty

Small

Medium

Large

Elephant

Have you or anyone else on the team completed a very similar task before?

A very similar task in a similar project

Yes

How long did the task take you / them?

This will be used to support the estimate

An ideal day is ~6 hours

Days

Give your optimistic best case estimate

This is where nothing goes wrong and you're on fire!

An ideal day is ~6 hours

Days

Give your pessimistic worst case estimate

This is where everything goes wrong with lots of unexpected obstacles

An ideal day is ~6 hours

Days

Give your most likely estimate

This is where some things go wrong, with some obstacles, but you're still on fire!

An ideal day is ~6 hours

Days

Your confidence in your most likely estimate

Lower confidence indicates more uncertainty

High

Medium

Low

None

OPTIMISTIC

Days

Uses PERT calculation for most likely estimate. Formula is (Optimistic + (4 x Most Likely) + Pessimistic) / 6

MOST LIKELY

Days

Uses the mean for a 'three point estimate'. Formula is (Optimistic + Most Likely + Pessimistic) / 3

AVERAGE

Days

PESSIMISTIC

Days

A low standard deviation means that most of the numbers are close to the average, while a high standard deviation means that the numbers are more spread out. Formula is (Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6

Standard Deviation: 1.43

A low variance means that most of the numbers are close to the average, while a high variance means that the numbers are more spread out. Formula is ((Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6) ^ 2

Variance: 1.55

Your average estimate (5 days) is more than a full 10 day sprint. Try to break the task down into sub-tasks. Ideally, a feature should take no more than 1 sprint, and a task no more than 3 days.

High Estimate

|──── 68% confidence between

Within one standard deviation from the mean.

1 and 2

days ────|

|──────── 95% confidence between

Within two standard deviations from the mean.

1 and 2

days ────────|

No applied modifiers

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